PSA: Shipping Costs will Skyrocket

[andrewsrea]

I have a friend in the shipping business, who says shipping costs have increased and will continue to increase. For those of us on the forum who buy, trade and sell - this will certainly impede our fun. Casino Guitars put out a good video today on this today.

What is causing this:
1.) People are not travelling by plane and bus, so routs have been cancelled. Non-passenger cargo is a significant portion of a passenger airplane's load, yet not enough to warrant flights with no passengers. Passengers require more crew than cargo planes. Buses carry some cargo. Less supply of routes = less efficiency, thus higher shipping prices (and more shipping risk).

2.) Demand for gasoline and diesel is growing. As the country reopens, usage increases. This has also been a much colder winter season in the US and heating oil demand is higher than prior years. This increases the price of fuel.

3.) Supply (note: please don't let this get political - keeping with fact): foreign producers stopped bickering and agreed to lower production. Coupled with the US new administration's reversal of fossil fuel self-sufficiency, we will be producing less and buying more of the expensive foreign oil. Even though this will effect the future more, oil prices tend to reflect speculation, because oil companies hedge their losses buy leading their price increases and lagging their reductions. So we are already seeing higher gas prices. My Costco in Missouri was $1.52 in December and is $2.07 now.

4.) Inflation is beginning to show and will increase, due to the US printing money and diluting the value of the US dollar. The pandemic, large debts coming due and other pressures are causing this. So not only will this drive shipping & instrument prices purely on inflation, but because shipping is biased to non-essential items. Non-essential demand is more negatively sensitive to inflation. so less buying will mean less shipping routes and less efficiency.

I am wondering if the golden age of instrument transactions is ending? Will it cause a shift back to local transactions? Get 'em while the getting's good?

[ID10t]

Good sfuff. I don't want to be too nostalgic, but remember when you had to talk to someone on a phone and then wait 6 to 8 weeks for something? I want instant gratification too but I think I could adjust to some middle ground.
"Will it cause a shift back to local transactions?"
I've had really good and really bad experiences buying local (all things). I try and I know the locals. The Rona probably killed my favorite local store for me because they made it political.
Except, and this is probably a chicken/egg thing....In the last 5 years I've been to the local music store twice. First I am never sure what its Hour of Operation is and it tends to flucuate. I also can't make up my mind if I want to overpay for a black Squire strat or a black Peavey strat.

[uwmcscott]

We've all been playing with house money in many different segments of our economy for a while now. At some point someone is going to have to pay for it. If the worst thing that happens is that shipping prices increase, i'm good with that.

[glasshand]

Good sfuff. I don't want to be too nostalgic, but remember when you had to talk to someone on a phone and then wait 6 to 8 weeks for something? I want instant gratification too but I think I could adjust to some middle ground.
"Will it cause a shift back to local transactions?"
I've had really good and really bad experiences buying local (all things).

I remembered this post because I just ran across something called the complaint tablet to Ea-nasir: it is a roughly three thousand eight hundred year old clay tablet, and is the world's oldest known customer complaint letter!

Ea-nasir travelled to the Persian Gulf to buy copper and returned to sell it in Mesopotamia. On one particular occasion, he had agreed to sell copper ingots to Nanni. Nanni sent his servant with the money to complete the transaction. The copper was sub-standard and not accepted. In response, Nanni created the cuneiform letter for delivery to Ea-nasir. Inscribed on it is a complaint to Ea-nasir about a copper delivery of the incorrect grade, and issues with another delivery; Nanni also complained that his servant (who handled the transaction) had been treated rudely.

And the really funny thing is that apparently Ea-nasir was basically the Wish.com of his day, because we have a ton of clay tablets detailing complaints about his various businesses. So if you have a bad experience, just remember that you have good company going back almost four thousand years!

[golem]

Funny because I was really thinking I'm set for guitars Rob. But you know me... I literally can't pass up a good deal. I'll just have to bake the cost of shipping into the mental math as well as increased Reverb fees.

[Buddha Pickups]

Taxes too.

[Mossman]

I watched this video this morning....



I wonder if this is going to mean more business for brick-and-mortar stores? At least in terms of guitars. My preferences shifted to online sources some time ago, to the point where I came to regard Guitar Center and Sam Ash as nothing more than showrooms. Places to try stuff out, and then go buy it online. That's when online retailers didn't have to charge sales tax. Now that that's gone, and you'll also have to pay for shipping, it looks like physical stores may now have the upper hand.

[nomadh]

So many big name are talking hyper inflation this yr. Like Venezuela style. By next winter maybe we will be burning our guitars to keep warm.
Let's hope shipping costs are all we have to worry about.

[OMB]

Anyone can put together a prognostication video about anything and why not? In todays economic and weather climate who knows. Right now inventories are crazy low on many guitar lines so today's normal does not necessarily indicate what is to be. But for sure...Change. It happens.

[Buddha Pickups]

I normally ship via flat rate usps and in the last 5 years it has increased about $3.

It normally took about $20 to fill my little car the last few years, $26 today....lame

[honyock]

I normally ship via flat rate usps and in the last 5 years it has increased about $3.

It normally took about $20 to fill my little car the last few years, $26 today....lame

$47.00 at the pump yesterday to fill my car. If I drive my truck it is $25 every other day.

Once it gets back above 45 degrees in the morning, I will be back to riding my Harley if the price of gas doesn't calm down.

Maybe I'll start looking for an old VW Caddy to do a TDI swap.

[andrewsrea]

I normally ship via flat rate usps and in the last 5 years it has increased about $3.

It normally took about $20 to fill my little car the last few years, $26 today....lame

$47.00 at the pump yesterday to fill my car. If I drive my truck it is $25 every other day.

^ Ouch!

[Partscaster]

First time I've been on the right side of a market. Shipping costs going up, inflation climbing, guitar costs heading up....and I'm sitting on way more guitars than I want to keep, and I've got a great relationship to a busy consignment shop where I've sold maybe 10 guitars.

I bet I'll still find a way to strike a loss, but I dont mind loosing money sampling many guitars and modding to my hearts content. I've definitely got 10-15 "must keeps" that I never would have sorted out without sampling from many.

[uwmcscott]

It normally took about $20 to fill my little car the last few years, $26 today....lame

$47.00 at the pump yesterday to fill my car. If I drive my truck it is $25 every other day.

Once it gets back above 45 degrees in the morning, I will be back to riding my Harley if the price of gas doesn't calm down.

Maybe I'll start looking for an old VW Caddy to do a TDI swap.

Noticed it's been creeping up around here too. I have a 32 gallon tank in my truck, glad I'm mostly working from home. Granted I can get about 550-600 miles on a tank but it sure sucks to fill it up all the way.

[Buddha Pickups]

Just jumped another 30 cents in the last week. Crazy

[Razzle]

Nope, local sux, too limited. We’ll all just keep paying the higher costs of shi.

Damn, shipped a guitar to Freakin’ Oregon, cost damn near a bill.