Update:
We drove two used cars today, for feel only:
Lexus RX "Sport" - with silly aftermarket window tinting, probably illegal here
Acura RDX, with the "tech package"
I liked the Lexus, but interior is not that roomy-feeling, and what I liked may just be the "Sport" part, as in, the lower level model may be more bland?
Spouse LIKED the Acura- we kind of expected that.
We drove an older MDX last month, for feel, and I was willing to buy it with my own money for her, but she is focusing on size (The MDX isn't that much bigger than the RDX?)
So, she is having a local dealer get a used RDX in HER favorite blue from their sister company in Rhode Island...!
To be continued....
Used car shopping gets you down....
- PoodlesAgain
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The other farm cats didn’t super love him but the chickens thought he was alright so he became a chicken.
I concur. I used to manage repair shops. It got to the point where we just refused to work on them. There was never a good ending,Plush newer ones, like the type of vehicle the OP is looking at, are notoriously unreliable. Like catastrophically so. One blogger (Doug Demuro) got an extended warranty on his newer Range Rover. In no time he had $7K in repairs done under warranty.
Then there was the one an older neighbour had. Bought it new. Less then a year in, on a really cold day, that sucker was listing to port like crazy. They were great off roaders. Now they are overly complex, over engineered, over priced junk.
- fullonshred
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Bought my parents 2006 RX330 a couple years ago. I think the styling is GREAT for an SUV, and it has decent power/takeoff, is not awful on fuel and is just comfortable. I really like it. Low miles and well maintained. They bought it new at years end for a pretty decent price for a new Lexus 1 step down (I think) from the top model.
- Gear_Junky
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I know I'll be in the minority, feel free to disagree. I've owned a few older vehicles and one that I bought new and drove for 10 years until it was junked (it was a Suzuki, not reliable at all).
I've done enough analysis and have come to a conclusion that the right lease is financially a more prudent choice [for some people in certain situations]. Before you start with the old tropes of "but you won't have a car at the end of 3 years, so you're just throwing away money", I have a finance background (among other things) and work in data analytics. I've crunched the numbers many times. This doesn't work for everyone's situation and for everyone's choice of vehicles, i.e. if you want a "fancy" car or a powerful truck, if you're picky about souped up engines, maybe not. If you care about utility, reliability and budget - read on.
I recently helped some friends who wanted to buy a used but not old SUV (Rav4, CRV, etc). Educated people. I had to build a 3-way scenario in Excel to demonstrate why they're better off with a lease. Had to overcome NUMEROUS mantras they've been fed about leasing, including stuff they read online. All the scare stories about being on the hook if the car is totaled and not covered fully by insurance (this was maybe true decades ago).
Then we bargained aggressively and got them a Nissan Murano on a 2-year lease at great terms. It was even better for them than the more conventional 3-year. You'll have to do your own Excel work, but you'll see that at the end of a lease term you have enough money left over to buy that same car at market prices (the used car that you were going to still have if you purchased). I hope you follow. When you do this, don't forget to look up "cost of ownership" on your purchased car scenario - there are statistical estimates of how much you'll spend in 3 years of repairing a 3-yr old car you want to buy.
A few principles here:
1. There are good leases and very BAD leases (in terms of numbers). Usually reliable vehicles with good resale value have good leases - Honda Civic, Accord, CRV, Nissan Sentra, Altima, Maxima and Rogue, sometimes Toyota. Occasionally there are good offers on American cars. Most typically these are the flagship high volume cars, not premium or performance.
2. Lease term must not exceed warranty (a few months may be ok, but better if not). And this also means that a car's reputation doesn't matter too much, whatever happens, it's under warranty. You could even not change the oil, it won't matter (not advocating that).
3. Do not "upgrade" - lease the basic advertised "trim" - they have all the safety features and options you might want. Getting the optional fancy Nav or "touring" package will usually kill your deal, unless the dealer is eager to dump a specific vehicle and make you an offer - those can be good. For me one exception here is AWD - if that's what I want, I'll insist on that.
4. Leases typically include "normal wear and tear allowance" - incidental damage. With Nissan a non-perforated dent smaller than a credit card doesn't count. And there's usually an allowance of $500-750 on bigger damage (Honda has covered bald tires for me). So don't be paranoid (and have good insurance, which they'll make you get anyway). But some leases also have a "disposition fee", i.e. with Nissan you have to pay $395 at the end of the lease - don't forget to include that in your analysis. On the other hand many dealers or manufacturers gift you your first month's payment. Nissan and Honda do in my experience.
5. DO NOT purchase the vehicle you leased. If the buy-out price is good, your lease was bad. Good leases do not offer good buy-out prices, by definition.
6. Yes, you can haggle for a lease. But I've found some dealerships that already advertise the best deal so you don't have to. But sometimes you can still get a few perks out of them. They are most pliable when a new model year rolls around (like now) and they still have last year's new cars on the lot. You may have to pick out from the colors they have vs. the color you want.
7. Get them to quote you a "sign and drive" price - meaning $0 due at signing. Don't just go by "monthly payment" - dealers often advertise low monthly payment leases by padding an exorbitant down payment. When you see that, just divide that by the number of months and add back to the advertised pmt - you'll get very close. Interest rate (known as "money factor" in a lease) tends to be around 1% on good leases, not very significant. And do not pay a down payment, no matter what. If your car is somehow totaled, you will not get that back. Zero down, sign and drive, baby.
8. Do not get swindled by "gap insurance" argument from lease detractors. It is not very expensive. Nissan leases INCLUDE it - you don't even have to get it. It is not an argument against leasing. Dealers don't want you to get stuck and to waste their time suing you - they'd rather price it in, it's cheap enough.
9. Sometimes it's possible to ask them to quote you a different term, i.e. 42 months vs. 36. Be mindful of warranty, but a few months aren't a big deal. Sometimes this slight change can work in your favor. Other times a shorter term will result in better payment - like it did for my friends.
10. Don't forget the miles per year allotment. Don't get less than you need (12k/yr is common, but sometimes 10k/yr is advertised). And do not pre-purchase additional miles. If the car is totaled, you won't get that money back. But even if you have to pay for mileage overage, it's way cheaper than car rental. So don't cut back on trips just because you're leasing. And yes, if you deliver pizza or drive for Uber, leasing is not for you
Just get over that mentality that you have to "own" a car. Yes, it can be great, sometimes it's absolutely the way - if you have to modify it, tow stuff, go off road, etc. But if it's just transport for a commute, then think of it as clothing. It wears out, then you replace it.
And yes, sometimes an older vehicle can be financially prudent. IF you can be certain that it won't be a money pit. I had a 15-yr old Nissan Maxima, it's never seen winters (Cali car) and it was in great shape. But I've added up repairs over 2 years and realized I could've been driving a new leased car - so I promptly traded it in on a lease Mind you, nothing major, nothing "broke", just routine maintenance - steering, suspension, all that stuff just starts bleeding your wallet on older cars. Sure, they can last another 20 years, but that Excel scenario won't be happy for your budget.
I've leased a Honda Odyssey (minivan), sedans and AWD crossovers. Every one was a great decision, even when I went over mileage allotment.
The reason this is true is not purely financial (lease vs. buy). Auto industry is notoriously bogged down with "channel stuffing". Leases count as sales when they lie to their investors. And then they sell the bulk off-lease cars to other countries. This wasn't always the case and may not always be. There were times when leasing just wasn't feasible at all. It's nothing but a financial instrument.
I've done enough analysis and have come to a conclusion that the right lease is financially a more prudent choice [for some people in certain situations]. Before you start with the old tropes of "but you won't have a car at the end of 3 years, so you're just throwing away money", I have a finance background (among other things) and work in data analytics. I've crunched the numbers many times. This doesn't work for everyone's situation and for everyone's choice of vehicles, i.e. if you want a "fancy" car or a powerful truck, if you're picky about souped up engines, maybe not. If you care about utility, reliability and budget - read on.
I recently helped some friends who wanted to buy a used but not old SUV (Rav4, CRV, etc). Educated people. I had to build a 3-way scenario in Excel to demonstrate why they're better off with a lease. Had to overcome NUMEROUS mantras they've been fed about leasing, including stuff they read online. All the scare stories about being on the hook if the car is totaled and not covered fully by insurance (this was maybe true decades ago).
Then we bargained aggressively and got them a Nissan Murano on a 2-year lease at great terms. It was even better for them than the more conventional 3-year. You'll have to do your own Excel work, but you'll see that at the end of a lease term you have enough money left over to buy that same car at market prices (the used car that you were going to still have if you purchased). I hope you follow. When you do this, don't forget to look up "cost of ownership" on your purchased car scenario - there are statistical estimates of how much you'll spend in 3 years of repairing a 3-yr old car you want to buy.
A few principles here:
1. There are good leases and very BAD leases (in terms of numbers). Usually reliable vehicles with good resale value have good leases - Honda Civic, Accord, CRV, Nissan Sentra, Altima, Maxima and Rogue, sometimes Toyota. Occasionally there are good offers on American cars. Most typically these are the flagship high volume cars, not premium or performance.
2. Lease term must not exceed warranty (a few months may be ok, but better if not). And this also means that a car's reputation doesn't matter too much, whatever happens, it's under warranty. You could even not change the oil, it won't matter (not advocating that).
3. Do not "upgrade" - lease the basic advertised "trim" - they have all the safety features and options you might want. Getting the optional fancy Nav or "touring" package will usually kill your deal, unless the dealer is eager to dump a specific vehicle and make you an offer - those can be good. For me one exception here is AWD - if that's what I want, I'll insist on that.
4. Leases typically include "normal wear and tear allowance" - incidental damage. With Nissan a non-perforated dent smaller than a credit card doesn't count. And there's usually an allowance of $500-750 on bigger damage (Honda has covered bald tires for me). So don't be paranoid (and have good insurance, which they'll make you get anyway). But some leases also have a "disposition fee", i.e. with Nissan you have to pay $395 at the end of the lease - don't forget to include that in your analysis. On the other hand many dealers or manufacturers gift you your first month's payment. Nissan and Honda do in my experience.
5. DO NOT purchase the vehicle you leased. If the buy-out price is good, your lease was bad. Good leases do not offer good buy-out prices, by definition.
6. Yes, you can haggle for a lease. But I've found some dealerships that already advertise the best deal so you don't have to. But sometimes you can still get a few perks out of them. They are most pliable when a new model year rolls around (like now) and they still have last year's new cars on the lot. You may have to pick out from the colors they have vs. the color you want.
7. Get them to quote you a "sign and drive" price - meaning $0 due at signing. Don't just go by "monthly payment" - dealers often advertise low monthly payment leases by padding an exorbitant down payment. When you see that, just divide that by the number of months and add back to the advertised pmt - you'll get very close. Interest rate (known as "money factor" in a lease) tends to be around 1% on good leases, not very significant. And do not pay a down payment, no matter what. If your car is somehow totaled, you will not get that back. Zero down, sign and drive, baby.
8. Do not get swindled by "gap insurance" argument from lease detractors. It is not very expensive. Nissan leases INCLUDE it - you don't even have to get it. It is not an argument against leasing. Dealers don't want you to get stuck and to waste their time suing you - they'd rather price it in, it's cheap enough.
9. Sometimes it's possible to ask them to quote you a different term, i.e. 42 months vs. 36. Be mindful of warranty, but a few months aren't a big deal. Sometimes this slight change can work in your favor. Other times a shorter term will result in better payment - like it did for my friends.
10. Don't forget the miles per year allotment. Don't get less than you need (12k/yr is common, but sometimes 10k/yr is advertised). And do not pre-purchase additional miles. If the car is totaled, you won't get that money back. But even if you have to pay for mileage overage, it's way cheaper than car rental. So don't cut back on trips just because you're leasing. And yes, if you deliver pizza or drive for Uber, leasing is not for you
Just get over that mentality that you have to "own" a car. Yes, it can be great, sometimes it's absolutely the way - if you have to modify it, tow stuff, go off road, etc. But if it's just transport for a commute, then think of it as clothing. It wears out, then you replace it.
And yes, sometimes an older vehicle can be financially prudent. IF you can be certain that it won't be a money pit. I had a 15-yr old Nissan Maxima, it's never seen winters (Cali car) and it was in great shape. But I've added up repairs over 2 years and realized I could've been driving a new leased car - so I promptly traded it in on a lease Mind you, nothing major, nothing "broke", just routine maintenance - steering, suspension, all that stuff just starts bleeding your wallet on older cars. Sure, they can last another 20 years, but that Excel scenario won't be happy for your budget.
I've leased a Honda Odyssey (minivan), sedans and AWD crossovers. Every one was a great decision, even when I went over mileage allotment.
The reason this is true is not purely financial (lease vs. buy). Auto industry is notoriously bogged down with "channel stuffing". Leases count as sales when they lie to their investors. And then they sell the bulk off-lease cars to other countries. This wasn't always the case and may not always be. There were times when leasing just wasn't feasible at all. It's nothing but a financial instrument.
I agree with what you say [mention]Gear_Junky[/mention] , the only reason we aren't curently leasing is that until 3 years ago we drove WAY too many miles per year. We paid off our used truck and our "everyday car" we bought used and paid cash.
- Gear_Junky
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Absolutely. There are many scenarios when buying is the better option.
I leased my 2012 Odyssey when I'd just found my new job after a while. Income was good and stable, but cash was low. I was going to buy an old van, for maybe $5 or $6k (that's old!) but I couldn't just lay out that kind of cash, while the lease was comfortable and easy (and cheaper in terms of what I'd spend on repairs). And there are other situations where someone doesn't have a chunk of cash but has reliable steady income. With interest rates being effectively zero on promo purchases and leases (even 2% is really like 0% adjusted for inflation), it is not as bad to use these instruments. You can't likely just get a loan at these rates, but new cars are often available below 1%, sometimes explicitly 0% and this usually benefits leases too.
Yes a Turbo gives your car or truck a boost but its just one more thing to break down and expensive to repair. Instead of giving you a v8 manufacturers may give you a turbo v6 or four cylinder engine using a turbo to boost its performance up up or above that of a v8 however its also pushing these engines much harder to do it. Common sense tells you that if you push a machine to its max it breaks down sooner.
The thing I object to about turbochargers is the automakers treat them as a "wear item" which means
they are NOT covered by the warranty just like brake linings, spark plugs, windshield wipers, etc.
they are NOT covered by the warranty just like brake linings, spark plugs, windshield wipers, etc.
Gandalf the Intonationer
Leasing is RARELY a better choice unless there are lease only incentives and you plan to buy the vehicle at the end of the lease. The auto industry loves leases because they sell you a car based on monthly payments not total cost. You almost always over pay for depreciation (their number crunchers are better informed than yours), and then they get the car back to sell for a second even bigger profit used. The industry loves leases because you pay more not less!
Yes, it is nice to have a new car every 3 years and always have a warranty, but don’t think for a second that you aren’t paying for that luxury. Except in rare cases, you would be better off buying a new car every three years and selling it or even trading it in vs leasing. Yes, more work and more risk on your part, and for the first one, your monthly payments will be higher, but over the long haul, your true costs will be a good 5-10% less than leasing.
Yes, it is nice to have a new car every 3 years and always have a warranty, but don’t think for a second that you aren’t paying for that luxury. Except in rare cases, you would be better off buying a new car every three years and selling it or even trading it in vs leasing. Yes, more work and more risk on your part, and for the first one, your monthly payments will be higher, but over the long haul, your true costs will be a good 5-10% less than leasing.
The big push for turbos is from environmental regulations. It is much easier for the manufacturers to meet mileage and emissions goals by putting a turbo on a smaller engine and running it harder. So what if the turbo fails or the head gasket goes after 70,000 miles? As Mickey said, these things aren’t covered by most manufacturers extended power train warranty.MichaelR wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:57 pm Yes a Turbo gives your car or truck a boost but its just one more thing to break down and expensive to repair. Instead of giving you a v8 manufacturers may give you a turbo v6 or four cylinder engine using a turbo to boost its performance up up or above that of a v8 however its also pushing these engines much harder to do it. Common sense tells you that if you push a machine to its max it breaks down sooner.
- Gear_Junky
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Respectfully, this is only a generalization and maybe with some outdated info thrown in, while I've done actual analysis numerous times. This is what everyone says (repeating what someone else told them).Chocol8 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 7:23 pm Leasing is RARELY a better choice unless there are lease only incentives and you plan to buy the vehicle at the end of the lease. The auto industry loves leases because they sell you a car based on monthly payments not total cost. You almost always over pay for depreciation (their number crunchers are better informed than yours), and then they get the car back to sell for a second even bigger profit used. The industry loves leases because you pay more not less!
Yes, it is nice to have a new car every 3 years and always have a warranty, but don’t think for a second that you aren’t paying for that luxury. Except in rare cases, you would be better off buying a new car every three years and selling it or even trading it in vs leasing. Yes, more work and more risk on your part, and for the first one, your monthly payments will be higher, but over the long haul, your true costs will be a good 5-10% less than leasing.
Number crunching is not rocket science - take an Excel spreadsheet and take the same car, i.e. Honda Civic or Accord - some of the examples I gave of what are "a good lease" (many are not, which is not a function of "lease" as financial instrument, but rather a function of poor resale value). When you roll a new car off the lot, you ALWAYS pay for that depreciation (it happens at signing). Unless you pay cash for a new car, interest rates between lease and purchase are very similar. When comparing a lease to buying on payments they are very similar during the first 3 years EXCEPT your payments are going to be nearly TWICE with the purchase. And then you'll still have to make payments another 2-ish years. And then you'll have an old used car at the end - it's nothing but a different way to lease Now, if you keep driving that car for another 10 years and it proves reliable, THEN you'll be better off. Maybe.
The point about the dealer making more profit reselling the car is nothing but emotion, it does not affect analysis and I don't care if they profit twice, I do not envy or begrudge anyone their profit. They are not making their profit twice on me.
The industry loves leases because a lot more cars are produced than able to be sold. So they pathologically engage in CHANNEL STUFFING (when cars sent to dealers are reported as "sold" to investors. They're not sold and many of them languish for 2 years until they're not able to be sold as new. A lease allows them to report a "sale", while they only sold the first 3 years (more or less) of the car's useful life.
You can't possibly "overpay for depreciation" with a "good lease", because a lease is calculated as [NEW PRICE] - [RESALE VALUE]. If a car has a good resale value, you get low lease, simple as that. This is also why there are many bad leases (I'd argue those are bad cars to buy as well). If anything, with a good lease you decouple from some of the depreciation as you only pay for the initial, minimal depreciation, while with a purchase you pay for it fully, upfront, it's priced in. With a lease the poor schlub who buys the car after you will bear the rest of their depreciation.
This is particularly wrong - I mentioned that specifically in my writeup. You never want to buy a car after a "good lease" - it will be overpriced. And if the price is low, then you overpaid for your lease. It's an inverse relationship
I'm willing to provide numbers, feel free to suggest a vehicle. Again, I've explained that only some cars fit the bill.
- Gear_Junky
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When selecting between 2 cars, even of the same exact category, check how much it costs to insure them. I found out that a Honda CRV is cheaper to insure than Nissan Rogue, even though they're very similar on all points. Actuarial science is not always obvious, they don't go by what "makes sense", only by what statistics show. They may not know why, they only know what causes them more claims.
I've figured that into my analysis, oddly enough 2 times in a row it was still cheaper to lease a Nissan (for me in 2013 and 2016). But before that I leased a CRV and had a great deal. All is flux.
I've figured that into my analysis, oddly enough 2 times in a row it was still cheaper to lease a Nissan (for me in 2013 and 2016). But before that I leased a CRV and had a great deal. All is flux.
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I will give the example I always give on leasing: when I looked at the hatchback Civic Si with the stick on the dash, it was roughly $27k Canadian to buy. If one were to lease it and buy out the lease at the end, it would have been $35k.
And if you lease, at the end of the term, you have paid out all of that money and own nothing....unless you pay out more.
Your smartest bet is to buy a reliable used car
And if you lease, at the end of the term, you have paid out all of that money and own nothing....unless you pay out more.
Your smartest bet is to buy a reliable used car
"I'm not a sore loser. It's just that I prefer to win, and when I don't, I get furious."
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I realize that most people don't want to read a lengthy post, I know I usually don't so I don't blame anyone
Oh, while we are at it: when purchasing you are paying TAXES on the whole value of the vehicle, up front and rolled into those payments. When leasing you are only paying the taxes on the first 3 years of a vehicle's life. Guess what, if that vehicle is totaled 4 years later, you won't get back taxes in full.
Bad example. Not an example of a "good lease". This starts with finding a "good lease", THEN comparing to a purchase of that same car. Those hatchbacks are not as mainstream, so they don't lease well. Just like Honda's HRV and Nissan's Juke, although cheaper than CRV and Rogue, just don't lease as well. It's not a linear function. It's not complicated, but it's a little different and requires a budget-like breakdown/scenario. Starting with a car you want and then asking how it leases is futile. I like Subaru, but I have yet to see a good lease on a Subaru. But to me cars are just utilitarian. If someone is passionate about driving a particular car, then leasing doesn't apply, of course.Rollin Hand wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:40 pm I will give the example I always give on leasing: when I looked at the hatchback Civic Si with the stick on the dash, it was roughly $27k Canadian to buy. If one were to lease it and buy out the lease at the end, it would have been $35k.
(I don't understand why people insist on conflating the lease and the buyout, not you, Rollin Hand, honestly, everyone who repeats this. Leasing and buying out the end-of-lease car are 2 separate activities, the buyout being 100% optional and typically not advised).Gear_Junky wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:24 am 5. DO NOT purchase the vehicle you leased. If the buy-out price is good, your lease was bad. Good leases do not offer good buy-out prices, by definition.
Yes, I already wrote about that, it's a fallacy (with a cognitive bias thrown in). At the end of the term you don't pay out "all of that money", on a good lease you pay out significantly less (typically as little as half) of what you'll pay on a 5-year car loan on the same car (and you'll still have 2 more years of payments). This is easily shown in an Excel scenario. You can lay out two 3-year leases (or more, as needed) alongside the 5-year car loan payments and subsequent repair costs.Rollin Hand wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:40 pm And if you lease, at the end of the term, you have paid out all of that money and own nothing....unless you pay out more.
Oh, while we are at it: when purchasing you are paying TAXES on the whole value of the vehicle, up front and rolled into those payments. When leasing you are only paying the taxes on the first 3 years of a vehicle's life. Guess what, if that vehicle is totaled 4 years later, you won't get back taxes in full.
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Gear junky, you have to demostrate this. I am reading this, but not making the connection. Bottom line is that, unless you can write off the payments, buying a good used car will always be cheaper long term.
Yes, one still has 2 years of payments when buying on a 5 year loan vs. a 3 year lease. But at the end of three years, you still own something. That you can sell. Or one could take on a 5 year lease. But again, after paying out money -- for the sake of easy math, lets say $400 a month all in -- you will pay $14400 and own nothing. Another year at that rate, and you have what I paid for my Sonata, used, with warranty remaining, and I own it. So after 3 years from June 2019, I can sell it, and get a decent amount back.
Then I will put some money towards a fresh off lease Honda Accord Sport 2.0T with a stick.
Yes, one still has 2 years of payments when buying on a 5 year loan vs. a 3 year lease. But at the end of three years, you still own something. That you can sell. Or one could take on a 5 year lease. But again, after paying out money -- for the sake of easy math, lets say $400 a month all in -- you will pay $14400 and own nothing. Another year at that rate, and you have what I paid for my Sonata, used, with warranty remaining, and I own it. So after 3 years from June 2019, I can sell it, and get a decent amount back.
Then I will put some money towards a fresh off lease Honda Accord Sport 2.0T with a stick.
"I'm not a sore loser. It's just that I prefer to win, and when I don't, I get furious."
- Ron Swanson
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Leases don't work "off hand", Rollin Hand. And they have more parameters than just the monthly payment. Each case must be evaluated.Rollin Hand wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:44 pm Gear junky, you have to demostrate this. I am reading this, but not making the connection. Bottom line is that, unless you can write off the payments, buying a good used car will always be cheaper long term.
Yes, one still has 2 years of payments when buying on a 5 year loan vs. a 3 year lease. But at the end of three years, you still own something. That you can sell. Or one could take on a 5 year lease. But again, after paying out money -- for the sake of easy math, lets say $400 a month all in -- you will pay $14400 and own nothing. Another year at that rate, and you have what I paid for my Sonata, used, with warranty remaining, and I own it. So after 3 years from June 2019, I can sell it, and get a decent amount back.
Then I will put some money towards a fresh off lease Honda Accord Sport 2.0T with a stick.
When I talked my friends out of buying a 2-3 year old RAV4, I demonstrated that at the end of their lease (on another vehicle of similar utility) they would have enough money to purchase that same RAV4 (5-6 year old version of it). I looked up used prices. Even a fresh used vehicle will have maintenance costs, which add up. That's aside from unexpected things that break.
I've never paid more than $300/mo on a lease, typically way less. But availability of these "good leases" is not the same throughout the year. Gotta shop around.
One example, my friends ended up with a 2-year Nissan Murano lease. It was a "one off" thing we negotiated (experience shows that when you haggle the manager always has a "deal" waiting). Total spent over 2 years = $7,467 (including the disposition fee and taxes). On an older vehicle beyond 2 years the published maintenance costs add up to around $3,738 for 2 years, on top of the cost (per published tables) and this is relentless, every year. It will play out differently, of course, depending on the vehicle.
Take a used car you would buy, then add in the money you'll spend every year (there are published tables of these costs), then figure how much you can realistically sell it for after 3, 5 years, etc. You'll quickly realize that you don't really "own" much. A car is a utility, a rapidly depreciating asset, it's not a gold bar. At least with a lease you remove some of the uncertainty and enjoy driving a new car under warranty.
best"lease" I ever had was my 2012 VW Golf TDI. I bought it, drove it for over 2 years, VW bought it back from me and paid me a bunch of cash which I used to buy a gas guzzling 1976 Ford F350. I basically paid only taxes and registration for the time I owned it when it was all said and done.
10 years, 2 months, and 8 days of blissful ignorance ruined by that snake in the grass Major Tom.
- Rollin Hand
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I don't know what maintenance costs you are talking about, but you still have to pay to maintain a new car. It isn't free unless there is a deal on where mainenance is included.Gear_Junky wrote: ↑Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:46 pm
Leases don't work "off hand", Rollin Hand. And they have more parameters than just the monthly payment. Each case must be evaluated.
When I talked my friends out of buying a 2-3 year old RAV4, I demonstrated that at the end of their lease (on another vehicle of similar utility) they would have enough money to purchase that same RAV4 (5-6 year old version of it). I looked up used prices. Even a fresh used vehicle will have maintenance costs, which add up. That's aside from unexpected things that break.
I've never paid more than $300/mo on a lease, typically way less. But availability of these "good leases" is not the same throughout the year. Gotta shop around.
One example, my friends ended up with a 2-year Nissan Murano lease. It was a "one off" thing we negotiated (experience shows that when you haggle the manager always has a "deal" waiting). Total spent over 2 years = $7,467 (including the disposition fee and taxes). On an older vehicle beyond 2 years the published maintenance costs add up to around $3,738 for 2 years, on top of the cost (per published tables) and this is relentless, every year. It will play out differently, of course, depending on the vehicle.
Take a used car you would buy, then add in the money you'll spend every year (there are published tables of these costs), then figure how much you can realistically sell it for after 3, 5 years, etc. You'll quickly realize that you don't really "own" much. A car is a utility, a rapidly depreciating asset, it's not a gold bar. At least with a lease you remove some of the uncertainty and enjoy driving a new car under warranty.
And I am still enjoying my new car warranty on my Sonata, and will be for another several months.
"I'm not a sore loser. It's just that I prefer to win, and when I don't, I get furious."
- Ron Swanson
- Ron Swanson
Sorry Gear Junky, but you are wrong and you have fallen for the industry trick of focusing on payments. I am not only a finance guy, I have done quite a bit of consulting work for all levels of the auto industry from manufacturers and suppliers, to dealers, and also the leasing and finance companies. I have seen the numbers, talked to the executives etc. THEY ALL LOVE LEASES!!!!!
Think of the big picture. If the manufacturer, the dealers, and the finance companies ALL make more money off of leased cars, how is it possible that consumers are spending less? Yes there are RARE exceptions, but overall, they make way more and you pay way more. It is a legal scam!
Here’s how that math really works. Take a Honda Toyota whatever with a sticker of 37k. The dealer will give you a discount and sell it to you for 34, but he would prefer to give you much lower payments and lease it to you for 35. If you don’t fall for that, he will lease it to you for 34 but tack on enough hidden fees to more than cover the difference. I could spend a long time detailing all the tricks they do here, things like charging the same fee upfront and in the lease, charging sales tax on the full $34k and not just the depreciation etc. but let’s just say I have done test shopping (professionally) and gotten lease quotes from dozens of dealers and I have only ONCE ever gotten a deal where there wasn’t an “error” and EVERY single error was in the dealers favor. Most people with finance degrees don’t spot them, the average consumer never does.
Even if you catch all the issues, you usually lose. The amount you pay each month on the lease is based on the depreciation of the car, interest rate and buried fees. The depreciation is calculated based on residual. Let’s say for our example car the residual on a 3 year 36,000 mile lease is 60%. That means you will pay 40% of the value over three years, or $14k for a $35k car and at the end the car is worth $21k. This is where it often makes sense to buy out the car if you leased it, because they almost always lease at a residual that is lower than real depreciation. At the end of the lease, the car will probably have a trade in value of $23-25k. That means your monthly payments were higher than they should have been and you over paid for depreciation. When you turn it in at the end of the lease, you just gifted them $2-4k. They LOVE when you do that!!! If you buy out the lease, you will have prepaid too much depreciation, but you will now under pay for the used car so it evens out...except for the fees, so you better negotiate the buyout fee at the beginning when they will often waive it or significantly reduce it for the rare savvy customer who asks. You should only turn in the leased car if the residual is higher than value of the car which sometimes happens with a major economic event, or when the manufacturer intentionally set the residual high to move cars they can’t sell and then delay the financial hit. Even with recessions these situations are relatively rare.
If you buy the car and then trade it in every 3 years, what happens is you pay more monthly, but you also build equity in the car that you get back at the end. If you negotiate both the purchase and trade in values well, that’s an extra $2-4k in your pocket every 3 years. That adds up over time, reducing your monthly payments to the point where you are paying less than on a lease. For example, you bought the Honda for $34k and traded it in for $24k. The next one you buy might be $36k but after trade in, you only have to finance $12k. If you had leased, and then released, you would have paid $14k in depreciation on the first one instead of $10k, and then on the second one you would pay $14.8k in depreciation with higher payments than the buyer financing a $12k net purchase price. Also, in most states, you don’t pay sales tax on trade in value so the overall tax costs are lower with the purchase as well.
All that said, I have leased 2 vehicles and it was the right decision, but both times I knew I would buy it out at the end. The first one had a GM factory $2000 “cash back” on leases with no factory incentives for buying and they were offering “0% interest” leases. The dealer was willing to waive most of the lease fees including the buyout fee, so it made sense to take the lease, and then buy the car at the end.
The second one was a VW diesel that I got literally hours before the EPA stop sale order. In that case they didn’t want low sales prices reported, so they wouldn’t sell me the car at a big discount but they would lease it to me with no interest, no fees, and over $14k off of the price they would sell it at. That was one of the rare nobrainer lease decisions. There was a risk of what the value would be in the end, but I had the option, and it turned out to be worth more than the residual so I bought it.
Think of the big picture. If the manufacturer, the dealers, and the finance companies ALL make more money off of leased cars, how is it possible that consumers are spending less? Yes there are RARE exceptions, but overall, they make way more and you pay way more. It is a legal scam!
Here’s how that math really works. Take a Honda Toyota whatever with a sticker of 37k. The dealer will give you a discount and sell it to you for 34, but he would prefer to give you much lower payments and lease it to you for 35. If you don’t fall for that, he will lease it to you for 34 but tack on enough hidden fees to more than cover the difference. I could spend a long time detailing all the tricks they do here, things like charging the same fee upfront and in the lease, charging sales tax on the full $34k and not just the depreciation etc. but let’s just say I have done test shopping (professionally) and gotten lease quotes from dozens of dealers and I have only ONCE ever gotten a deal where there wasn’t an “error” and EVERY single error was in the dealers favor. Most people with finance degrees don’t spot them, the average consumer never does.
Even if you catch all the issues, you usually lose. The amount you pay each month on the lease is based on the depreciation of the car, interest rate and buried fees. The depreciation is calculated based on residual. Let’s say for our example car the residual on a 3 year 36,000 mile lease is 60%. That means you will pay 40% of the value over three years, or $14k for a $35k car and at the end the car is worth $21k. This is where it often makes sense to buy out the car if you leased it, because they almost always lease at a residual that is lower than real depreciation. At the end of the lease, the car will probably have a trade in value of $23-25k. That means your monthly payments were higher than they should have been and you over paid for depreciation. When you turn it in at the end of the lease, you just gifted them $2-4k. They LOVE when you do that!!! If you buy out the lease, you will have prepaid too much depreciation, but you will now under pay for the used car so it evens out...except for the fees, so you better negotiate the buyout fee at the beginning when they will often waive it or significantly reduce it for the rare savvy customer who asks. You should only turn in the leased car if the residual is higher than value of the car which sometimes happens with a major economic event, or when the manufacturer intentionally set the residual high to move cars they can’t sell and then delay the financial hit. Even with recessions these situations are relatively rare.
If you buy the car and then trade it in every 3 years, what happens is you pay more monthly, but you also build equity in the car that you get back at the end. If you negotiate both the purchase and trade in values well, that’s an extra $2-4k in your pocket every 3 years. That adds up over time, reducing your monthly payments to the point where you are paying less than on a lease. For example, you bought the Honda for $34k and traded it in for $24k. The next one you buy might be $36k but after trade in, you only have to finance $12k. If you had leased, and then released, you would have paid $14k in depreciation on the first one instead of $10k, and then on the second one you would pay $14.8k in depreciation with higher payments than the buyer financing a $12k net purchase price. Also, in most states, you don’t pay sales tax on trade in value so the overall tax costs are lower with the purchase as well.
All that said, I have leased 2 vehicles and it was the right decision, but both times I knew I would buy it out at the end. The first one had a GM factory $2000 “cash back” on leases with no factory incentives for buying and they were offering “0% interest” leases. The dealer was willing to waive most of the lease fees including the buyout fee, so it made sense to take the lease, and then buy the car at the end.
The second one was a VW diesel that I got literally hours before the EPA stop sale order. In that case they didn’t want low sales prices reported, so they wouldn’t sell me the car at a big discount but they would lease it to me with no interest, no fees, and over $14k off of the price they would sell it at. That was one of the rare nobrainer lease decisions. There was a risk of what the value would be in the end, but I had the option, and it turned out to be worth more than the residual so I bought it.
To be extra clear, Gear Junky’s theory on “good leases” is correct, if you assume:
1) the sales price is the same
2) no or minimal extra lease fees or “errors”
3) the residual on the lease is set higher than what the car will be worth at the end.
1 and 2 can be negotiated by a savvy buyer who knows how to calculate a lease to the penny and who can catch any hidden fees. 3 on the other hand depends on the consumer having better information and making better predictions than the industry insiders who do this for a living. Yes, sometimes they are wrong, sometimes they even set leases intentionally in your favor, but these cases are FAR FAR more rare than the opposite. Your odds are better at a casino.
1) the sales price is the same
2) no or minimal extra lease fees or “errors”
3) the residual on the lease is set higher than what the car will be worth at the end.
1 and 2 can be negotiated by a savvy buyer who knows how to calculate a lease to the penny and who can catch any hidden fees. 3 on the other hand depends on the consumer having better information and making better predictions than the industry insiders who do this for a living. Yes, sometimes they are wrong, sometimes they even set leases intentionally in your favor, but these cases are FAR FAR more rare than the opposite. Your odds are better at a casino.
There are always twists and exceptions, and taxes can certainly play a big role. Plenty of business owners have purchased bigger more expensive SUV’s because of the old bonus depreciation rules. A great example of unintended consequences of an overly complicated tax code!
If leasing can reduce business or income taxes at rates north of 20%, then obviously it might make perfect sense to pay 10% more to lease. These days I think taking the depreciation is probably better, but listen to your CPA.
- uwmcscott
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Right now is a pretty bad time to purchase or lease a vehicle. Inventory is low due to factory shutdowns earlier this year and as a result, used inventory is down too. I generally purchase vs lease and bide my time, walk away until I find the deal I want. I was actually just looking out of curiosity to see If there were any potential deals to do a trade on my 2017, but it’s not a good time at all. Not only is the inventory scare, but the MSRP for the exact vehicle went up almost 5k in 3 years.
AGF Survivor Champ Emeritus (Ask TVVoodoo )
I'm another who says leases are no good for 95% of the people. I hate anything with a monthly payment and you have nothing in the end? I work on my own cars, very rarely have to dish out more than $20 for a sensor, brakes exhaust tires and fluids i do not count. I change brake fluid, antifreeze every 2 years. I don't think i have ever added oil to any vehicle i own. Just got done changing tranny fluid and ptu at 40k on 2 cars. 4 rotors and new pads on my daily driver, $250. My Suzuki Grand Vitara had for over 10 years, 130k when sold. That vehicle was built much better than american cars and also fit and finish. Geo tracker we had, built by Suzuki was a great small suv and after we sold it the kid drove it around many years. I see crap like toyotas getting their frames changed under warranty, they had that problem 30 years ago and still happens?
AGF refugee
- Gear_Junky
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Absolutely! Anyone who knows (and cares) to do all the repairs/maintenance, should definitely buy and keep a good used car! I'm not sure if 95% of people work on their own cars, thoughmozz wrote: ↑Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:51 am I'm another who says leases are no good for 95% of the people. I hate anything with a monthly payment and you have nothing in the end? I work on my own cars, very rarely have to dish out more than $20 for a sensor, brakes exhaust tires and fluids i do not count. I change brake fluid, antifreeze every 2 years. I don't think i have ever added oil to any vehicle i own. Just got done changing tranny fluid and ptu at 40k on 2 cars. 4 rotors and new pads on my daily driver, $250. My Suzuki Grand Vitara had for over 10 years, 130k when sold. That vehicle was built much better than american cars and also fit and finish. Geo tracker we had, built by Suzuki was a great small suv and after we sold it the kid drove it around many years. I see crap like toyotas getting their frames changed under warranty, they had that problem 30 years ago and still happens?
Funny, I also had a Suzuki Gr. Vitara (2000) - drove it for around 10 years (with winters) and it was overall in good shape but the frame rusted to the point that it wasn't worth fixing. Junked it around that same mileage that you had yours, also around 10 years. Had another Suzuki I bought new - Aerio AWD. That was a bucket of bolts