Done, maybe.

[BatUtilityBelt]

Today, I feel I'm done buying guitars. The market seems to have become creepy and predatory. I just had a strange exchange over what was in 2014 a $499 guitar brand new with free shipping. The (3rd owner) seller has beaten it up and now wants $900 + $100 shipping. Nope.

Admittedly he did add a comically over-sized case (which might just break off that headstock).

It's just not fun anymore since people think used guitars are worth more than new ones. Lucky for me, I have way more guitars than I will ever actually need. I feel bad for anyone still looking to fill their guitar corrals though!

[MichaelR]

I know what your saying about the oversized case as I had a Guitar shipped to me in a Reverb deal before Etsy bought them. The fact that it was the wrong case which allowed the guitar to move around during shipping caused the headstock to crack so I sent it back. I hope your deal works out better.

[Rollin Hand]

It can still be done. You just have to put in the time looking. Or live near the same pawnshops that @toomanycats frequents.

The problem is that many are speculating and trying to get more for their gear, same as they are with used cars. The price comes down when people don't buy.

[BatUtilityBelt]

It can still be done. You just have to put in the time looking. Or live near the same pawnshops that @toomanycats frequents.

Absolutely - TMC has the most admirable Pawn luck I have ever heard of, I'm very jealous.

The problem is that many are speculating and trying to get more for their gear, same as they are with used cars. The price comes down when people don't buy.

That's it in a nutshell. But if you try to offer what's actually reasonable, you're a low-balling ahole. I know of another that has been lowering his price over a 2 month span and he's near what I offered when he started listing it. Unfortunately I'm pretty sure he doesn't want to hear from me again because he hasn't reached out. In his mind, I probably still am that ahole from 2 months ago.

[nomadh]

Even with the good deals still hot I was a declining returns guitar junkie. It seemed I needed to buy more, get a better deal or go higher end. My 1st $1000 guitar collection had 12 or 14 guitars in it and I liked most of them. My last $1000 guitar collection had 1. My Gibson lp. That's when I hit bottom. Then I went on to pa equipment but now here I am. Recently retired not buying anything and not playing anything I already bought.

[PsychoCid]

Today, I feel I'm done buying guitars. The market seems to have become creepy and predatory. I just had a strange exchange over what was in 2014 a $499 guitar brand new with free shipping. The (3rd owner) seller has beaten it up and now wants $900 + $100 shipping. Nope.

Admittedly he did add a comically over-sized case (which might just break off that headstock).

It's just not fun anymore since people think used guitars are worth more than new ones. Lucky for me, I have way more guitars than I will ever actually need. I feel bad for anyone still looking to fill their guitar corrals though!

The value of the guitar did not go up.

The value of the dollar has gone down.

The further our currency becomes debased,

The more the market will turn against us.

[PsychoCid]

It can still be done. You just have to put in the time looking. Or live near the same pawnshops that @toomanycats frequents.

The problem is that many are speculating and trying to get more for their gear, same as they are with used cars. The price comes down when people don't buy.

I figure we're pretty much at or near the top of the market..I'm expecting a huge housing and dollar crash appx next 2-3 years. Much bigger than the great depression.

Diversify meanwhile. Gold, silver, crypto. Stay stocked on dry goods. Everyone couldn't hear me when I said this two years ago. Suddenly now people are waking up.

So on guitars, just hold off a while. They'll be cheap again when people need to sell them all off for food.

[BatUtilityBelt]

The value of the guitar did not go up.

The value of the dollar has gone down.

Nah, it's beyond that. Here's the math with this guy who wants $900 + $100 shipping (so 1K) - This guitar that was $499.99 new in 2014. That was when the manufacturer was trying to make a name for themselves. It now is beat up. But I could buy a newer version of the same guitar today from the manufacturer for $940 and free shipping. It's insane for this guy to ask more than new money for it.

Let me put it another way. I have a gold top Agile AD-3200MCC I bought for $599. Rondo is currently selling them for the same amount. It's like someone trying to sell a used, dented and buckle rashed one for $1100.

I think a lot of people actually believe used guitars are worth way more than they actually are because they've seen too many high asking prices. What started out as people leaving room to haggle has, in a shaky market, turned into something very different. Like I said, I could wait it out forever, and I just might, but I think it's crazy.

[PsychoCid]

The value of the guitar did not go up.

The value of the dollar has gone down.

Nah, it's beyond that. Here's the math with this guy who wants $900 + $100 shipping (so 1K) - This guitar that was $499.99 new in 2014. That was when the manufacturer was trying to make a name for themselves. It now is beat up. But I could buy a newer version of the same guitar today from the manufacturer for $940 and free shipping. It's insane for this guy to ask more than new money for it.

Let me put it another way. I have a gold top Agile AD-3200MCC I bought for $599. Rondo is currently selling them for the same amount. It's like someone trying to sell a used, dented and buckle rashed one for $1100.

I think a lot of people actually believe used guitars are worth way more than they actually are because they've seen too many high asking prices. What started out as people leaving room to haggle has, in a shaky market, turned into something very different. Like I said, I could wait it out forever, and I just might, but I think it's crazy.

Yeah I hear ya.

It's always been that way for 15 years though. I could always find Agiles on eBay for far more than new price.

What I'm saying is the inflation is causing people to act even crazier. Businesses and sellers will always seek to max their margins. And they'll always test the waters for uneducated buyers, hehe.

Anyway, it's going to get much crazier from here.

[BatUtilityBelt]

Yeah I hear ya.

It's always been that way for 15 years though. I could always find Agiles on eBay for far more than new price.

What I'm saying is the inflation is causing people to act even crazier. Businesses and sellers will always seek to max their margins. And they'll always test the waters for uneducated buyers, hehe.

Anyway, it's going to get much crazier from here.

I imagine that's true. If it gets crazy enough, I'll sell off half my guitars (but not my favorite half).

[honyock]

There as so many memes devoted to this very thing, 10 year challenge for example.



Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[Partscaster]

The relic'd market may have given some a misguided idea that used/abused should cost more now than previously.

I still hope to sell off a few partscasters sooner than latter, amongst a few others. Every one of mine sounds so good now. I tried to pick out my least favorite recently to try a new set of pups in, and I couldnt believe how good they all sounded. They all have great components and pickups in them. I felt like a totalitarian policeman and finally "grabbed one from the crowd". I have more good pup sets than I do guitars now, and wonder when some famous winders retire, if their pups might start to fetch higher prices (Don Mare, Fralin, Lollar, Dave Stephens, Chris Klein, etc)

[BatUtilityBelt]

I also wonder about another possibility that will take a bit of explaining. Maybe 10 years ago now, I had this idea I discussed with my wife, where you could have bots watching the major sites for underpriced gear. If it was underpriced considerably, it would be worth the risk of having the bot act as you and actually buy the gear. We determined it would not only be feasible, but would not be all that difficult after creating a database of gear to target. The only thing that kept me from doing it was that it would be somewhat unethical and take the fun out of gear hunting.

I would not be surprised if there are one or more such actors in today's market using automated processes to grab up gear just to flip at artificially inflated prices. I would be astonished if I was the only one who ever had that idea or considered acting on it.

[Chocol8]

There are definitely people using bots to find deals and flip, but all they do is even out the pricing. There are also more people playing guitar now than ever in history. Demand up and dollar value plummeting are the main drivers of the price increases. Lower supply of new guitars, flippers, crazy sellers, and everything else people complain about are all a very small piece of the picture.

[Tonray's Ghost]

Yeah I hear ya.

It's always been that way for 15 years though. I could always find Agiles on eBay for far more than new price.

What I'm saying is the inflation is causing people to act even crazier. Businesses and sellers will always seek to max their margins. And they'll always test the waters for uneducated buyers, hehe.

Anyway, it's going to get much crazier from here.

I imagine that's true. If it gets crazy enough, I'll sell off half my guitars (but not my favorite half).

Just sell off the necks and keep the bodies

[tobijohn]

I wish there was an easy and dependable way to determine what something actually sold for rather than what it was listed for. I wonder what data a lot of these sellers are using to determine their asking price. Even with the market up, most of the time the pricing makes no sense, at least to me...

[PsychoCid]

I wish there was an easy and dependable way to determine what something actually sold for rather than what it was listed for. I wonder what data a lot of these sellers are using to determine their asking price. Even with the market up, most of the time the pricing makes no sense, at least to me...

I can't speak to this specific market

But with other toys I grew up loving, collectors and investors got involved

Where they specifically try to corner the market

Raise ALL the prices _drastically

And just sit on them for years until that dam breaks

[solteroblues]

I've lost all desire for new guitars... I still want them, but they've gotten so expensive that I've decided to try building my own now, from scratch. I figure I can get the woods I want and make it myself to be at least as good as some of these kits LOL

[Chocol8]

I wish there was an easy and dependable way to determine what something actually sold for rather than what it was listed for. I wonder what data a lot of these sellers are using to determine their asking price. Even with the market up, most of the time the pricing makes no sense, at least to me...

You can search closed sales on ebay, Reverb and other sites. Ignore listing prices and look at only completed transactions. For the most part, they have been going up sharply.

[PsychoCid]

I wish there was an easy and dependable way to determine what something actually sold for rather than what it was listed for. I wonder what data a lot of these sellers are using to determine their asking price. Even with the market up, most of the time the pricing makes no sense, at least to me...

You can search closed sales on ebay, Reverb and other sites. Ignore listing prices and look at only completed transactions. For the most part, they have been going up sharply.

I remember when vintage Kramer's were worth $600-800 maybe $1200 for a coveted Baretta

Then a couple guys start buying them and listing them for $2000-2500

We all laughed and thought they were nuts, but they slowly and surely acquired more

Until all the regular prices Kramer's were gone and everything is stuck up in that $2k+ range now

And that's for the junk ones with missing parts. It only took them 5 years to quadruple the prices.

[PsychoCid]

Similar, Magic the Gathering. Getting out was my worst decision ever.

All my cards that were $20/each are now $300/each

My cards that were $300/ea are now $4000/ea

My cards that were $5 are now $85

I cashed out in 2004 or so. Everything doubled within six months of my exit. And has only continued.

[BatUtilityBelt]

Update with some decent news here... About 2 months ago there was one such guitar I considered overpriced on Reverb, but it was not obscenely overpriced, just old-school hopeful overpriced. There were others of the same model less well appointed and with yet higher asking prices.

I shot an offer I thought was reasonable. The seller countered, and I countered. He balked that my last offer was still "a lowball", and declined it instead of countering again.

A month later, he dropped the price a bit, and I thought - "told ya", but I left it alone because when the word "lowball" comes up, people stop thinking there's any room for a deal. The guy was nice other than that.

So yesterday, I saw the guitar was still out there and it's one on my bucket list. Since the whole guitar industry considers them overpriced new, I decided I could appeal to the seller's sense of reason and bring that up, that new buyers of this brand take the hit for the manufacturer overpricing the guitar. I sent an offer for the same exact amount he called a lowball two months earlier with that note, and surprise, he accepted.

So I expect to have a NGD post coming in a few days, and wanted to note in this thread that there is apparently some hope of people backing away from the overpricing cliff. As Rollin Hand implied, it can really take some time anymore. Two months - yikes!

[tobijohn]

So what is it?

[BatUtilityBelt]

So what is it?

LOL, I wondered if someone would ask the spoiler question. It's a B&G Crossroads Little Sister. I've wanted to try one since they first came out. Here's one of the listing pictures:

[BatUtilityBelt]

FedEx actually delivered, today, the same day they said they would. In my neck of the woods, that's big news because they're rarely reliable here. The guitar is chillin in its cocoon on a couch, working on acclimating before I open the case because I don't want to relic it.